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February 12, 2010 ...We’ve been overloading on college hoops and there is good news and bad news when it comes to prospects for the NBA’s future. The good news is that there are some kids that I already have a feeling of trust in. On the other side of the coin - there is no shortage of knuckleheads with talent. Let’s start with a handful of players that I feel comfy with… Jarvis Varnado is a PF/C for Mississippi State that has earned the nickname “Swat” for his defensive prowess. He is 6’9”, 215 lbs. -  but his wingspan is 7’4”. Varnado is on pace to become the NCAA’s all-time leading shot blocker. He is currently second and has just passed some incredible names in Alonzo Mourning, Tim Duncan and Adonal Foyle. I am a fan of Jarvis. ...Perhaps my favorite NCAA player right now is Damion James of Texas. James is the rare tough-guy that has the skill to play Small Forward effectively in the NBA. He is a terrific rebounder with the ability to score off the dribble or from the perimeter. He uses either hand well and never seems to stray from the team concept. I’m sold on Damion James. ...Evan Turner of Ohio State is a versatile guard that is capable of getting a triple-double when he steps on the court. I do think he needs to be a bit more careful with the ball - he is turnover prone - but the positives outweigh the negatives. ...Growing on me is Georgetown guard Austin Freeman. He is a burly SG that can really stroke the jump shot. He shares the ball, runs the floor, and he has a frame that looks like it will stand the test of the NBA grind. ...Freeman’s Hoya teammate Greg Monroe is a 6’11” passer/scorer that has incredible vision. His versatility as a playmaker combined with his trustworthy demeanor make him a prospect worth a significant investment. …Al Farouq Aminu is a PF with serious ball-handling skills that allow him to give opposing BIGS fits. The Wake Forest Sophomore is a former McDonald’s All-America that can finish in transition with the best of the best. ...Jon Scheyer of Duke is like having a coach on the floor playing minutes. He is a knock-down shooter with the highest hoops IQ of any player  in the NCAA. His free throw percentage is a whopping 91% combined with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.2 to 1. It is easy to see why Duke is again a threat in the ACC. ...Three other guards I believe in are Matt Bouldin of Gonzaga, Jared Quayle of Utah State and Sherron Collins of Kansas. Bouldin’s skill set and body are perfect for the NBA. He passes the ball with either hand and plays at a pace that calmly breathes the word “composure”. ...Quayle is a feisty competitor that scores, passes, and runs his team like a born leader. ...Collins is a money player that I want to have the ball with time winding down. I am a bit concerned with Collin’s body. He could go John Bagley on us.  Finally - I’m sold on these guys as future NBA players: James Anderson (Oklahoma State), Landry Fields (Stanford), and Luke Babbitt (Nevada)  ...The term “knucklehead” seems to apply to the player that is the best big man prospect. DeMarcus Cousins of Kentucky has shown flashes of severe immaturity on his way to being the most efficient player in the NCAA. We’ve seen him throw thuggish elbows, get technical fouls, and argue with his coaches. John Wooden says you have to be able to trust a player. I agree. And I don’t trust Cousins. Could that change? It could. But history tells me that it likely will not. ...While I’m not at all ready to apply the knucklehead stamp on John Wall - I am also not ready to “crown him” either. Wall had a recent bump in the road after some criticism from John Calapari—his Head Coach. I’m watching closely to see if that was just a one-time thing or if there is something more to Wall’s moodiness. The Wall camp does not want to see John compared to Steve Francis. ...Houston’s Aubrey Coleman is a sure-fire NBA talent that last year stomped on the face of Chase Budinger. He too received a T in a recent game I scouted. I love his one-on-one skills but I’m not sure about his character yet. ...Gonzaga’s Elias Harris is an efficient wing player that loves to get to the basket. I really like his game although his outside shooting must improve. But the play that sticks out in my mind to date by Harris was a dirty elbow to the throat of Chas McFarland in a December game against Wake Forest. Can Harris be trusted? ...Now there are also some talented future NBA players that I’m not ready to sign-off on for various reasons. ...North Carolina’s Ed Davis was among my favorites until a recent string of virtual invisibility as he tried to play through an injury. Now we hear he is possibly out for the season with a broken wrist. ...Dexter Pittman is a big Texas Center that has a pair of hands that you just don’t see every day. This guy is special around the hoop. The problem with Pittman is that he plays in only three minute stints. He lost over 100 lbs. to get to where he is now but he still has wind issues. ...Vanderbilt’s A.J. Ogilvy is efficient but not aggressive. I still like him more than most do but Ogilvy could be so much better. ...Butler’s Gordon Hayward is a guy I like but he too has a way to go to convince me. His issue is his slight frame and average athleticism.

 

February 3, 2010 ...Efficiency matters. The top five NBA Point Guards by efficiency are all on winning teams. The five are: Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Chauncey Billups, and Rajon Rondo. At Shooting Guard - eight of the top ten (not counting Gilbert Arenas) are on teams that would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended today. Those eight are: Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Brandon Roy, Manu Ginobili, Joe Johnson, Jason Richardson, Jamal Crawford, and Vince Carter. The two exceptions are Nor-Cal’s Tyreke Evans (I call him a TWO), and Monta Ellis.  Kevin Martin, who has yet to hit his stride since a return from injury, ranks eleventh. I, for one, am hopeful that the Kings do not trade Martin. Efficient Shooting Guards are a valuable commodity in the NBA and although I feel Evans and Martin duplicate each other to some degree - I think you could say the same of  Johnson, and Crawford in Atlanta, and that is working out okay last time I checked. If Sacramento does not want to play Evans at Small Forward (where I believe he could play, thus opening up the PG for Sergio Rodriguez, or Beno Udrih) then maybe Martin needs to embrace a sixth man role because it is clear to me that the Kings offense is more cohesive with Rodriguez initiating it. Rodriguez actually gets the Kings into sets - giving a chance for movement by both ball and players.  Yes, Rodriguez can be out of control but I think you have to live with that because of his uncanny vision and ability to involve teammates. It is a FACT that the great Steve Nash has more turnovers than any NBA player. It is also a  fact that the more involved a player can be on offense - the more likely that player is to be enthused about playing defense. The Kings energy rises with Rodriguez at the helm.  The most efficient lineup the Kings can have (and this is pure science) is Rodriguez, Martin, Evans, Jason Thompson, and Spencer Hawes. Udrih would spell Rodriguez. Omri Casspi would replace either Martin or Evans, and Jon Brockman would be the first BIG off the bench. When Francisco Garcia returns - his historical efficiency would put him into the mix as the ninth man. The efficiency rating says that Andres Nocioni and Donte Greene would be seldom used as the tenth and eleventh players. Ime Udoka, Sean May, Kenny Thomas and Hilton Armstrong  would be the odd men out in this plan. ...Oh yeah - I was breaking down the annual league wide mid-season efficiency rating audit when I digressed into my Kings rant.  At Small Forward - four of the top five are on winning teams; Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, and Gerald Wallace. 70% is the number at Power Forward. Seven of the top-ten are on winning teams. Tim Duncan, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, Dirk Nowitzki, Zach Randolph, Josh Smith, and Kevin Garnett are the seven.  At Center we find that efficiency may not matter as much. Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah, Nazr Mohammed, and Marc Gasol are the only top-ten Centers on current playoff teams. Meanwhile these five cats in the top-ten are on losing squads: Marcus Camby, Andrew Bogut, Brook Lopez, Samuel Dalembert, and Marresse Speights.