BasslineSpin.com basketball blog by Bobby Gerould

 

May 19, 2009  ...The Kings getting the fourth pick in the NBA Draft after having the worst record in the league is disappointing but could be a blessing in disguise. If Blake Griffin is just a star and not a SUPERstar - then he will fall short of the expectations that always accompany the number one pick. Most mainstream media, in classic ‘monkey see-monkey-do’ mode, say Ricky Rubio and Hasheem Thabeet will be picked second and third. I’m not sure about either of them. Darko Milicic had the same buzz Rubio is presently enjoying. I DO think Rubio is a better prospect than Milicic was but am I sure he is worth being in the top of the lottery? No. Thabeet can certainly defend. But he really struggles on the offensive end. ...So - if the Kings have a draft board with all but Griffin, Rubio and Thabeet available, they can still get one of these guys: Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, DeJuan Blair, Ty Lawson, James Harden or Austin Daye. And, who’s to say that,  just because most draft sites or monkey-see, monkey-do, scouts say, Curry, Lawson, and Daye should not be picked in the top of the lottery - that that is really how it is supposed to be? Don’t tell ME that if Daye or for that matter DeMar DeRozan, reach their FULL potential—that they  couldn’t be the real stars of this draft.

 

May 12, 2009 ...It is incredibly hard to get draft picks right. I have had more than my share of screw ups during the ten years I have undertaken the NBA Draft as my adult “life-work”.  But I am very proud of my successes as well. Improvement and fine tuning to my ying-yang of common sense and statistics has occurred; even if slowly . This year will mark the eleventh year that I have meticulously ranked NBA Draft prospects. I read on ESPN.com that Doug Gottlieb doesn’t think Stephen Curry’s skills will translate to the NBA. I strongly disagree. Gottlieb cited poor picks of the past in Quincy Douby and Corey Brewer when, in their drafts, Rajon Rondo, and Rodney Stuckey were still available. He also used Adam Morrison as an example of the kind of bad pick he thinks Curry will be if he is selected in a high spot. From my statistical based scouting perspective - Curry is no where near Douby, Brewer or Morrison. His .691 EFR is something you just don’t see from a guard. I think Curry has a chance to be better as a pro than he was in college because other players can compliment his extraordinary skill set. Curry will finally be playing with guys that can finish. He is a good passer with good vision. He is not a classic Point Guard at all but he did have roughly three assists for every two turnovers. Of course his real skill is his shooting. For the record - and I LOVE this stat. Douby was picked 19th by the Kings in 2006. I Had Douby ranked 56th in 2006. Who was #19 on my 2006 board? Paul Millsap. For Corey Brewer -  I am on record as saying I would have selected Joakim Noah with that pick. Brewer was the seventh pick in 2007. I ranked him 13th.

 

May 11, 2009 ...There is some downright fascinating stuff to read on DraftExpress.com about situational statistics for prospects at each position in the upcoming NBA Draft. The lengths scouting goes to is truly beyond obsessive compulsive. ...Guys I am personally struggling with ranking in the Draft  include USC’s DeMar DeRozan who did not perform particularly well as a Freshman, and Stephen Curry who overachieved playing with less talent. I love Curry. I think he should be ranked higher than a consensus ninth. DeRozan is sixth (consensus) but is he really better than Jeff Teague, Sam Young, Wayne Ellington, and Gerald Henderson? I’m not sure of that. ...What about the case of DeJaun Blair? “He is a 6’7” Power Forward” - I keep hearing. But did you consider his reach? His wingspan is 7’3”. His weight could be a huge issue down the road which scares me. But he can solve a team’s rebounding woes in an instant. How high should he be ranked? The consensus says 13th. I say higher.

 

May 2, 2009 ...Another win for efficiency! To win in the NBA you must have a star (or stars). Here are your four Western Conference Second Round teams. The Lakers, Houston, Denver, and Dallas. Common traits? They all have at least one  player rated in the top five at their respective position (in regular season efficiency rating). Kobe Bryant - 2nd at SG, Yao Ming - 3rd at C, Carmelo Anthony 5th at SF, and Dirk Nowitzki 5th at PF. As a bonus the Lakers have Pau Gasol 4th at PF, and Andrew Bynum 9th at C, while the Mavs have the ninth rated PG in Jason Kidd, and the Nuggets have the tenth rated SG in J.R. Smith. ...I’m sure you all have been enjoying the Chicago Bulls-Boston Celtics  series as much as I have. Rajon Rondo has been as good as I thought he was and Kendrick Perkins has been better than ever. ...On the Chicago side - Derrick Rose and Tyrus Thomas have exceeded my expectations while Joakim Noah has been rock solid. ...One more reason I don’t want Jeff Van Gundy to coach the Kings; I like him too much as a TV analyst.

 

April 26, 2009 ...Not surprisingly, I have some thoughts regarding the next Head Coach of the Sacramento Kings. The search is on with Geoff Petrie stating publicly that the experiments are over. The Kings are seeking someone who has already won games in the NBA as the main man. Among potential candidates - I’ve heard three names that I hope DO NOT come to California’s Capitol. Let’s start with Avery Johnson. I think he is WAAAAAAAY too condescending. If his act wears thin on me as a fan from afar—imagine having to listen to him every day.  Self righteousness is good sometimes but too much of it makes you someone no one can get through to.  ...Next, I DO NOT want Mike Fratello. His teams are boring. Even with Dominique Wilkins, I was bored with Fratello. ...I really like Jeff Van Gundy but not as my coach. He fits my philosophy that basketball is a game of inches but he would be too hard to play freely for. From a players standpoint - Van Gundy over analyzes everything. Too nitpicky. ...Del Harris? No room to grow with him. ...Paul Westphal? Defense won’t be emphasized enough. ...So what does that leave? Eddie Jordan, Paul Silas, Bernie Bickerstaff, Kurt Rambis, Terry Porter and the inexperienced Brian Shaw. ...I don’t see anyone I really want. I would give the nod to Silas as the best man. Maybe Byron Scott or Lawrence Frank get canned and then the Kings can go after one of them.