NBA Efficiency Ratings
The Baseline Spin - By Bobby Gerould - 02/18/05 - Rocklin, CA. We do Efficiency Ratings every year at the All-Star Break for all players with over 300 minutes played. The results are always interesting and inevitably are early indicators of future NBA trends. The Efficiency Rating (EFR) is a tool that can be used to compare players that play varying degrees of minutes. Think of it as kind of a NBA batting average. In baseball .400 is a magic mark. For the EFR, a good number is really anything above .500 The range for this audit was a high EFR of .836, and a low of .163
For starters the self proclaimed 'best point guard in the league' isn't the best point guard in the league. If we define a point guard as the primary ball handler and offense initiator, then that player should have a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. We looked at 327 player's stats at the All-Star Break. By common sense we know that roughly one-fifth of those players must be point guards (just as one-fifth are power forwards, shooting guards, etc ). Stephon Marbury actually turns up as the seventh best by efficiency. Lebron James has an assist to turnover ratio in the top fifth of all 327 players we looked at, which means he could be a point guard. He is the highest ranked, followed by Steve Nash, Larry Hughes, Tracy McGrady, Jason Kidd, Baron Davis, and then Marbury. James, Hughes, and McGrady spend most of their time at other spots but could be point guards. Kidd, and Davis are point guards but are point guards with injuries. When common sense is applied, only Nash is really truly ahead of Marbury. The Kings Mike Bibby is ranked right behind Marbury. The top-ten in efficiency at the one is filled out by Sam Cassell, and Jamal Tinsley. Jason Terry (Mavs) is rated eleventh, and Jason Hart of the expansion Bobcats is going to earn some hefty free agent cash if he continues at his.500 EFR clip, which is 12th overall. Hart is ranked ahead of (in order) Brevin Knight, Bobby Jackson, Damon Stoudamire, Tony Parker, Chauncey Billups, Speedy Claxton, Andre Miller, Jason Williams, Kirk Hinrich, Rafer Alston, Antonio Daniels, Bob Sura, Gary Payton, Mike James, Dan Dickau etc The highest EFR for a point guard is James at .657, and the lowest is Eddie Gill at .265 The highest rated rookie Point Guard is Jameer Nelson at .429
At the Two Guard spot James was again the highest rated at .657 - the lowest is DeShawn Stevenson at .209 Kings rookie Kevin Martin is third from last at his position, with a woeful .238 EFR. Contrasting styles are always interesting to note. Perhaps the least athletically gifted shooting guard in the NBA, Fred Hoiberg, owns a .499 EFR (15th at his position), while the premier athlete Jason Richardson is at .495 (16th at his position). Hoiberg gets it done with shooting accuracy, and by protecting the ball. Josh Smith (Atlanta) is the highest rated rookie Two Guard at .493 (18th at his spot). A prime example of how a team hurts when a major player is injured? The Kings super sixth man Bobby Jackson (.488) is rated 20th as a shooting guard, and 14th as a point guard. When the Kings play these days - minutes sometimes go to Maurice Evans, Matt Barnes, or Martin. Barnes is a .319 EFR, which is 62nd among shooting guards. Evans owns a decent .373 EFR - which is 48th at the Small Forward spot.
My feelings on the Small Forward spot are that you must shoot above .333 from the three point line to play the position well. You also need to have the foot speed to guard other threes. The highest rated guy that can play Three is Dirk Nowitzki at .712, while the lowest is Jonathan Bender at .215. Peja Stojakovic was a .570 at the end of the 2003-04 season. He is now at .444. His 130 point drop is among the biggest changes from the end of last year to today. If he was back at .570 he would rank fifth today but at .444 he is 21st at his position. The EFR suggests the Suns really didn't gain anything by adding Walter McCarty (.315). Walter is 62nd in the Small Forward rankings. Matt Bonner (.494) is the highest rated rookie who could (probably) play the three spot.
Power Forwards should be rebounders and low post scorers. The highest EFR for a "Four" is Garnett at .836, while the lowest is rookie Kris Humphries at .252. It always makes me laugh when Centers are overlooked as Power Forwards. Not all Power Forwards can be Centers (some don't block shots well enough) but almost all Centers can be Power Forwards. Dig? Example: Chris Webber, a proper Power Forward, does not block shots well enough to play Center. But ultra-Center Shaquille O'Neal could be a Power Forward. Shaq boards well enough, and scores in the low post - which fits the bill. If the Heat wanted to get a shot blocker they could actually play Shaq as a Four. Highest rated rookie Four is Anderson Varejao .609 EFR (15th overall). Drew Gooden is being overlooked. He is the tenth rated at the Power Forward with a .631 EFR. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors have Mike Dunleavy who they selected ahead of Gooden. Dunleavey is a small forward at .397 (44th overall at the Three). Another reason why the Warriors suck is their insistence over the years of going with older pros while teams like the Clippers develop a guy like Bobby Simmons. Calbert Chaeney? .297 EFR (72nd at Shooting Guard). Derek Fisher? .366 EFR (45th at point guard). Adonal Foyle? .411 (55th at Center).
Centers: The highest EFR belongs to Garnett .836, and the lowest is Darko Milicic at .163. I am one of the few people in the world (actually the only one I know) that had Carmelo Anthony, and Dwyane Wade ranked ahead of Milicic in the 2003 Draft. Darko was the "automatic" 2nd pick, according to almost everyone, behind Lebron James.
Does a high EFR equal wins? Let's show you, using the top three teams, and worst three teams .
Team: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6th man, Bench 2, Bench 3, Avg. EFR
Good Teams:
Spurs: Parker .482 (16th) Ginobili .596 (5th) Bowen .293 (71st) Duncan .755 (2nd) Nesterovic .409 (56th) B. Barry .404 (41st) D. Brown .382 (44th) Rose .463 (50th) . Top 8 EFR avg. .473
Suns: Nash .646 (2nd) Q. Richardson .404 (37th) Joe Johnson .405 (38th) Marion .655 (7th) Amare .733 (3rd) Jim Jackson .341 (56th) S. Hunter .484 (38th) McCarty .315 (62nd) .Top 8 EFR avg. . 497
Heat: Damon Jones .425 (31st) Dwyane Wade .616 (2nd) E. Jones .388 (47th) Haslem .520 (37th) Shaq .709 (5th) R. Butler .305 (66th) Doleac .421 (65th) Dooling .274 (75th) Top 8 EFR avg. .457
Bad Teams:
Atlanta: Lue .309 (62nd) Josh Smith .493 (18th) Josh Childress .391 (45th) A. Harrington .416 (67th) A. Walker .442 (45th) Delk .352 (51st) Drobnjak .401 (42nd) Diaw .284 (72nd) Top 8 EFR avg. .386
Charlotte: Knight .492 (13th) Hart .500 (15th) G. Wallace .409 (36th) Okafor .505 (40th) Brezec .469 (41st) Bogans .280 (76th) Ely .371 (65th) Kapono .332 (58th) Top 8 EFR avg .419
New Orleans: Dickau .436 (27th) Jacobsen .277 (78th) Nailon .424 (26th) PJ Brown .462 (51st) C. Andersen .530 (23rd) J.R. Smith .219 (83rd) R. Rogers .284 (96th) Lynch .315 (94th) Top 8 EFR avg .368
You know what else is funny? Teams spend millions on buyouts to erase bad deals by previous GMs. Teams spend millions on tired players that have no chance at NBA stardom. Look at the three bad teams above. New Orleans is hideous. Rodney Rogers and George Lynch are taking up space while the Hornets could do better. They have guys out of position. Lee Nailon is often their Small Forward which is silly because he is a back-to-the-basket post man. I'm not a Casey Jacobsen fan. Atlanta, I would like to see them try Smush Parker as their starting point guard. Go bigger with Al Harrington at the TWO, Drobnjak at the three, Josh Smith at the four, and go sign a real Center. Bring Antoine Walker off the bench, with Josh Childress, and Tony Delk. Oliver Miller would help as a Center. Where is Alvin Jones? Chris Garnett? Charlotte is actually not in bad shape - if they could just improve their bench play they would be contending in the East. Melvin Ely has been a major disappointment to me. I've never liked Kapono's game, and Keith Bogans is hard to figure. He should be better but he is what he is. I know Smush is better (than Lue), and I think Blake Stepp is too. On the good teams, I have to question the depth of Miami. Rasual Butler and Keyon Dooling are not ready for prime time. Also Eddie Jones does not fit my definition of a three due to shooting below .333 from beyond the arc. The Spurs depth is impressive, and a series vs. the Suns will be good.