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HammerDown! Basketball Journal Archives - By Bobby Gerould - Rocklin, CA.

06/25/03 ...Today I try to look for reasons why players I do not have ranked high are ranked highly by others. Case #1, Zarko Cabarkapa. At age 21, Zarko is older than the young Europeans who are making all the noise in this draft. Cabarkapa can shoot it, and he's 6'11". However, getting to the line is a rarity. …Also two turnovers for every one assist in the last two years in Euro League. ...If it's true the Suns are taking this kid at #17, I believe it is a huge mistake. ...Case #2 Leandrinho Barbosa. Trying to find accurate statistics for this guy is tough. He's 20 years old from Brazil. …Has a wide 6'10" wingspan, and great athleticism. …Jumper isn't pure, and is somewhat awkward but defensive lateral quickness is exceptional. …Has a flair for the flashy pass. ...Was the second-youngest player (19 years old) to earn a roster spot on the Brazilian National Team that competed at the 2002 World Championship in Indianapolis. Named Brazilian League Rookie of the Year for 2002 in his first full season at Brazil’s top level. ...In 2002-03 he dropped an average of 28.2 points, (7.0 apg) and was averaging 4.0 rebounds. In this case, I can see why teams like this guy. After digging and digging I am convinced he has the exceptional athleticism required in the NBA. I like enough to make him a late first rounder. That's why we do this. ...By the way, it's 3:46 am. I have issues. ...Case #3 Mickael Pietrus. ...I still don't see it. ...Not a lottery pick. The shooting numbers just are not there. A great athlete, yes. (MY-kel PEET-russ) is a slasher, and great defender. He struggles with the perimeter game. Over last two European seasons he's 61% from the FT line. 38% FG shooter over same period. Nice pedigree but I feel he is very overvalued right now. He won the 2000-01 French National Championship with EB Pau Orthez. ...Also Won the 2002 French National Cup with EB Pau Orthez. He played the 2001 and 2002 French League All Star Game. ...Case #4 Sofoklis Schortsanitis. (SOF-fik-klees shor-tih-NEE-tees). …He is very young, and very strong. African-Greek kid that is huge and muscular. Strong inside brute game. …His mother is from Cameroon and his father from Greece. …Foul prone and a poor free throw shooter. A gamble, but his raw strength and agility make it foreseeable that he could be a player. I'll move him up on my list. ...Case #5 Zaur Pachulia. This guy does have potential. He's a rebounder that averaged six minutes per game before starting a big game against defending champion Panathinaikos. Pachulia responded giving his squad its first Top 16 victory. Pachulia posted 26 points on 10-for-13 two-point shooting and added 8 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals. ...But one game does not a hero make. There are more talented Power Forwards in the NBA than any other position. In 365 minutes I can validate, Pachulia has 8 assists. I'm not sold. Case #6 Carlos Delfino. Delfino rarely turns the ball over. He is a strong, aggressive defender. ...His most recent stats show he is not an NBA caliber shooter at this stage. 29% from 3-point land. 67% from the line. But he is a good rebounder for a guard, and he gets steals at a high rate. You need to score from the perimeter at 6'6". Delfino cannot yet do that but his defensive prowess may move him into my late second round. Case #7 Maciej Lampe. From Poland. Just a kid. He's 18 years old, right handed, and he can really shoot the ball. At 15, he moved to Sweden and began playing professionally. After his first season, Lampe was signed to Real Madrid. ...A skilled BIG. ...Has been member of the Polish Cadets National Team. ...Played at the 2002 European Junior Championship. …Very limited experience to suddenly compete in the NBA. Smart player. ...Among the new breed of seven footers with some ball-handling skills. Good rebounder but still very young. He will need time to develop. ...Seems like a gamble. ...Relatively short arms for a seven footer. He measured 7'0" wingspan at the Chicago pre-draft camp. Case #8 Kirk Hinrich: Hinrich was better statistically as a sophomore than he was as a senior. Perhaps because he was playing hurt. I am moving Hinrich up on my list.

06/23/03 ...The Kings getting Darius Songaila is good for Sacramento. He was maybe the most skilled post player in the 2002 draft. This Lithuanian has moves for his moves on the block. (spin left for the right handed hook, or spin right and come up and under). He'll dive on the floor for a ball, After playing in international competition, and at Wake for 4 years, Songaila is experienced enough to help now. He was a member of the 2000 Bronze Medal winning Lithuanian Olympic team, and posted 12 points and 16 rebounds in games vs. the USA. ...Songaila is a strong post player that gets to the free-throw line. He is hard to stop in the post. He prefers to play back to basket, but is versatile enough to hit shots facing the hoop as well. He showed a crossover dribble that got him a 14 foot jumper. He has great stamina and is constantly in motion. Scores within the offense, and reads defenses well. ...Doesn't have great leaping ability, is slow, and flat-footed. He does run the floor and gets back in transition. ...He has tremendous touch around the hoop. ...Plays hard, and is a good passer. He was married in spring of 2002, and played last year in the Euro League where he was a First-Team all league selection.

06/21/03 ...I laughed hard at some NBA rumor that had the Kings sending Peja Stojakovic, and Bobby Jackson to the Denver Nuggets for The #3 pick in the 2003 draft (Carmelo Anthony), Ryan Bowen, and Marcus Camby. Why on God's earth would the Kings give up one of the five best small forwards in the game (Peja), and one of the seven best point guards (Bobby Jackson) for Bowen and Camby and the pick? Camby is always hurt. Bowen is nice but not like that. He is not better than Hedo Turkoglu or Gerald Wallace right now. Carmelo is obviously the carrot but as nice as Melo is, he's not worth Bobby and Peja. I think some folks have no idea how good Bobby Jackson is.

06/20/03 ...Andre Emmett is a classy guard that scores around the basket, and plays a strong floor game. He is going back to school. The deep shooting percentages aren't very strong however. 30% from the college arc, 72% from the line. …Emmett makes up for his lack of outside touch with an excellent midrange game. He has more turnovers than assists. Emmett has good touch when inside ten feet. He'll get the roll on most of his paint shots.

06/18/03 ...Chris Thomas, of the a sweet crossover dribble, is returning to Notre Dame. I applaud the decision. Thomas is a blue-chip talent with tremendous potential that needs the time to grow into really being a point guard. Thomas' skills are so far ahead of most teammates that he often tries to do it all. That's fine. But pick your spots. Thomas is an aggressive, right-handed, point guard that can really push the ball. He was a McDonald's high school All-America. He shoots with good touch, hitting 87% of his free throws. There is plenty of time for growth in his game. He is only two years removed from high school. He has great quickness, and when he comes focused he can really ball. He works on defense but needs to slow down on offense to be effective. I had him listed at #38 in this draft. If he shows improvement next year he could easily be a lottery pick. He has that much talent.

06/16/03 ...Michael Ignerski (Mississippi State) gets a Chicago pre-draft camp invite and James Singleton (Murray State) does not?

06/15/03 ...San Antonio Spurs - NBA Champions. They will miss David Robinson. The Spurs Center was ranked 12th among all NBA Centers in our 2002-03 efficiency audit. Players ranked in that neighborhood: 10th to 14th - Ben Wallace, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Robinson, Kurt Thomas, and Kelvin Cato. ...Marcus Moore of Washington State in returning to cougar country. He will pull out of the NBA draft. Good move. The point guard from Inglewood, CA. has some unreachable skills and with Dick Bennett taking over at Washington State, Moore decided to test the waters. Now he'll learn some patience from one of the best defensive coaches in the game. Moore is a run and gun player with suspect deep shooting skills. Poor shot selection led to Moore shooting 35% FG in the PAC-10. He does drop dimes, but also gets TO's. Assist to TO 1.2-1.

06/14/03 ...Shaquille O'Neal has hired a personal trainer for off-season workouts in his Orlando neighborhood. The Daddy weighed about 355 pounds and his body fat was about 20% last week, when he was measured by Laker personnel. Shaq, for the first time in recent history was not the top efficiency player in the NBA. Our own audit show Kevin Garnett is the reigning king. ...Mickael Pietrus, of Pau Ortiz in France is looking to be the first major draft day mistake for a team. In two years of balling in France, his efficiency rating is .330. That would rank him outside of the top 60 shooting guards in the NBA. Any team that picks that guy over Dwayne Wade will live to regret. In our eyes, Wade, Josh Howard, Kyle Korver, Troy Bell, Jarvis Hayes, and many more would be better picks. ...If Karl Malone were in this 2003 draft, where would he be picked?

06/10/03 ...Theron Smith of Ball State is good enough to be a first round pick but a torn ACL last year, and recurring tendinitis in the knee may cause him to slip out of the first round guraenteed money. However, I would make him a top priority for round two, similar to Chris Marcus.

06/09/03 ...First good move by Danny Ainge in Boston. He did not resign Eric Williams. It's too bad beacuse Williams is a great guy. He played all 82 for the Celtics last season but he has been an offensive liability for years. ...If a guy can't hit 33% from 3 point range, how can he play the two or three effectively. I believe both positions require a perimeter shooting skill. The cut off is 33% because that's the minimun percentage you can shoot from beyond the arc, and keep pace with a 50% 2-point clip. With that in mind, a 30% three-point shooter like Texas Tech's Andre Emmett may be better compared to the available post players, rather than shooting guards.

06/08/03 ...This is where I issue a public apology to Tony Parker. I have been a harsh critic of Parker and his development with the San Antonio Spurs. I didn't believe he should have been drafted in the first round. I thought he couldn't possibly lead the team to the NBA Finals. Yet here he is busting teardrops like the Stylistics. The lesson learned is to be more patient in seeing a player before a rush to judgment. I didn't like his shooting numbers, and I labeled him. However, his quickness, shooting touch, and personality overcome my negativity. Parker has handled the pressure of a deep playoff run with the savvy of a veteran of ten years, not two. I'm sorry Tony Parker. You are a much better player than I ever gave you credit for.

05/29/03 ...Bay Area heads should stay up for a LeBron sighting. The number one pick in June's NBA Draft, Lebron James has hired Bay Area agent, Aaron Goodwin. Goodwin has secured a gym in Oakland for James to workout. Yo Lebron, I need a loan. ...The word now is that Darko Milicic is a lock for the 2nd pick by Detroit. That leaves third to Kiki in Denver. Vandeweghe is on the record saying he'll take Carmelo Anthony at three. ...So the first draft day mystery will be number four.

Of course the NBA Draft is a difficult thing to gauge but this year maybe more so than previous years. There are a group of young, unproven players that make forecasting the draft extremely hard. We've read all kinds of media reports, and feel the need to offer our fifty cent on the NBA futures of certain players.

Flashback to 2000. Joel Przybilla, Jason Collier, Jamaal Magloire, Dalibor Bagaric, Jake Tsakalidis, Mamadou N'diaye and Primoz Brezec are all selected as NBA big men. Only Magloire has had any impact at all. Being tall isn't enough. Ya, heard? Maciej Lampe.

We hear that Darko Milicic will be the second pick in the draft. While ESPN continues to show the same highlight of Milicic running the floor for a breakaway dunk, and then hitting a lefty three, that player could just as easily be any of tens of thousands in the world. Okay, that's taking it to the point of ridiculous. But consider, Milicic is only a 62% free throw shooter. The three point shot he hits in the highlight is the one of five he's connected for in the 2002-03 season where the 17 year-old is playing. In 2001-02 he made two of seven from long range. So he must really be dominant inside right? No. Actually, in the 2001-02 season he shot 48% from the field and averaged 6.2 points per game in 27 games for KK Hemofarm. If he does develop, you could be talking about a long wait. It could be a better strategy to pick a player that can help now and take your shot a Milicic at the end of his first contract.

...Marcus Banks (UNLV) is ranked too low by most mock drafts I've read. Banks plays defense too. He was the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year back-to-back, and he's a strong scoring point guard. He deserves to go higher for sure than Mo Williams.

...Dejan Bodiroga, fresh from a Championship, and MVP trophy in the EuroLeague sounds like he is mulling the NBA, if you read bewteen the lines. Bodiroga might be able to enhance the Kings lineup. They hold his rights. Dejan told Spanish media that he won' t play in Serbia-Montenegro National Team at the next European Championship, scheduled for September 2003 in Sweden.

Interesting Stuff from our 2002-03 NBA Efficiency Audit...

The Efficiency rating (EFR) creates a level playing field statistically by combining stats, and dividing by the number of minutes played. It is a valuable tool when combined with common sense.

John Stockton still rated at #4 in efficiency among point guards.

Jason Kidd, for the first time in career is ranked #1 point guard.

Bobby Jackson rated 8th, while Mike Bibby is 14th for the 2002-03 season.

Charlie Ward and Earl Boykins have higher efficiency ratings than Brent Barry and Baron Davis.

Bottom 5 NBA point guards (300 minutes minimum): Lindsey Hunter, Junior Harrington, Chucky Atkins, Juaquin Hawkins, Bimbo Coles.

Andre Miller took a huge efficiency hit. He was rated 2nd among point guards last season, and this year wound up 31st.

Among wing players noone improved more than Matt Harpring. Going to Utah elevated Harpring to be rated #6 at shooting guard.

Tracy McGrady is easily the most efficient player capable of playing the two spot. His .731 EFR is tops, with Kobe Bryant in the ballpark at .676. After those two it falls quickly. Sam Cassell at .606, and Paul Pierce at .585 follow.

Michael Redd (.525) is rated 8th at his position ahead of big names like Allen Iverson (.491), Richard Hamilton (.459), and Ricky Davis (.431).

Bottom 5 shooting guards (300 minutes minimum): DeShawn Stevenson (.255), Trenton Hassell (.255), Casey Jacobson (.237), Kareem Rush (.220), and Chris Jeffries (.203).

Most efficient rookie that can play two? Marko Jaric (.402).

Despite injuries, Vince Carter (.540) still rated #4 among shooting guards.

For the record, Yao Ming rated in top five among Centers as a rookie at (.607), while Amare Stoudemire (.491) is the 36th ranked power forward.

Carlos Boozer's EFR was also higher than Amare's. Boozer's (.586) is tenth among power forwards.

Bottom 5 small forwards: (300 minutes minimum). Bruce Bowen - Spurs .258, Ansu Sesay - Sonics .243, Michael Curry - Pistons .210, Nikoloz Tskitishvili - Nuggets .203, Danny Ferry - Spurs .201