BasslineSpin.com basketball blog by Bobby Gerould

 

June 22, 2009 …A few things I have learned after doing some NBA Draft digging by ‘working the phones’ (a classic Tim Roye term he insisted upon when I interned for him)… The Sacramento Kings are still undecided as to who they will select at #4. This is in part due to the uncertainty about what will occur beyond Blake Griffin being chosen first by the Clippers. Picks two and three could go in any number of directions. My gut tells me Sac will choose between Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans, and Ricky Rubio. If Jonny Flynn is their guy they may try to trade down in the Draft to select him later. Today at 1:12 am I would vote for Evans or Curry. I’m not sold that Evans is a Point Guard but who cares? He can play - and you can always get a good PG prospect at #23. Curry is just so classy and such a great shooter that I strongly believe he will be a darling of the NBA . While some also see Rubio in the same light - I hope the Kings stay away. People say Rubio was great in the Olympics. Actually he was mediocre at best. He did not embarrass himself. What he did accomplish was - he was the youngest player to ever start in a Gold Medal game. This generated headlines and attention but REALLY - he was just so-so. Watch the full game if you have the time.  ...The issues with DeJuan Blair’s knees are real. There are serious concerns about his long term ability to maintain conditioning in his career with two knees that had ACL surgery when Blair was in high school. ...Terrence Williams was mentioned to me by one NBA suit as the “knucklehead of the Draft”. ...I Doubt Ty Lawson, who I really like, will slip past #13 and the Indiana Pacers. ...A prospect that I have changed MY OWN opinion of is Wesley Matthews.  I think he has a chance to be a second-round steal. He can shoot, he has size, he defends, he competes, he gets to the line, he rebounds, he’s confident, and he shoots 80% FT.

June 21, 2009 ...I cannot begin to imagine what it must be like to be the name and face in charge of the Draft for an NBA team. As I was telling my Dad on Father’s Day, I can’t sleep sometimes due to the constant thoughts about which players should be rated higher or lower on my inconsequential NBA Draft board. A wrong move in the Draft can cost a team millions of dollars, and can cause basketball operations executives to lose their jobs. ...The one thing certain about the NBA Draft that I have learned in eleven years of ranking players—is that there is no mathematical or scientific formula that can perfectly rank the potential draftees in the correct order. Likewise, there is no way you can ‘just watch’ the players and get it right. A player’s athleticism and flash need to be brought back to reality with a base of data so that we all don’t think that the best runners and jumpers are the future stars. It is also important to not confuse activity for achievement (John Wooden!). Some players play REALLY hard and you love them for their heart—but this is the NBA. There is a certain amount of skill that a prospect simply HAS TO have to survive. ...Visualizing a starting line on a track is the best way I can presently bring perspective to my draft rankings. What happened before the actual starting line may or may not predict who can be a leader. The college or international prospects with historically high efficiency numbers (Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, etc…) may be the early leaders - off to a quick start - but those who have a higher ceiling  yet mediocre numbers  (DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, etc…) can be the guys who eventually win the race and achieve stardom. The bottom line is that it comes down to doing an insane amount of research, and observation - and then thinking deeply about  which player should be ranked higher than the other.  Starting with a scientific formula, and a scouting checklist, I then change the rankings order based on ‘feel’. 

June 16, 2009 ...Work behind the scenes is progressing on the 2009 NBA Draft. ...I wonder how many NBA front offices are re-thinking their philosophy about the wonders of length following the NBA Finals. The Lakers and Magic are both big teams especially at the “Small” Forward spot. Trevor Ariza 6’8” 210, Hedo Turkoglu 6’10” 220, Rashard Lewis 6’10” 230, and Luke Walton 6’8” 235 should make many think long and hard about the future size of that position. ...What SF’s in the draft have that kind of size? Austin Daye, DeMarre Carroll, Earl Clark, Joe Ingles, Jonas Jerebko, and DaJuan Summers to name a few. Derrick Brown—with his long reach can sneak into that group too at 6’7”.  I would also say that Leo Lyons and Omri Casspi can play SF at times although their best position at this moment may be PF. ...Don’t shoot me if you are bitten by the Ricky Rubio rock star buzz but I have to ask… Is he any better an athlete than Kirk Hinrich or Steve Blake? Just asking.

June 5, 2009 ...This is the eleventh year I’ve put the best traits of obsessive-compulsive into analyzing the NBA Draft. It is so much harder than anyone thinks it is to actually choose ONE player correctly with any given pick. Looking back at the first year I published a draft report (1999) - we see in hindsight that there were eleven guys that have had really nice careers. In my estimation - Manu Ginobili should have been the first pick - he was taken 57th by San Antonio. You could go a thousand different ways on the next group though. Elton Brand, Baron Davis, Rip Hamilton, Andrei Kirilenko, Shawn Marion, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Jason Terry, Corey Maggette, and Andre Miller would certainly be the next ten players in some order. Picks 12-16 in 1999 should have been (in any order you wish) Jeff Foster, James Posey, Wally Szczerbiak, Devean George, and Kenny Thomas. So what doomed the players actually picked in the top 16 that didn’t  pan out? Steve Francis was picked second. He had all the tools except for the maybe the most important one. DESIRE. Jonathan Bender was the fifth pick. He never made it much past DNP-Knee Pain. Trajan Langdon was the eleventh pick. He’s had a nice career in Europe but his overall lack of athleticism seems to be his NBA downfall. Alexsander Radojevic was picked 12th;. drafted on potential as a shot blocker. He played in three NBA games in his career. William Avery went 14th but his lack of shooting skill coupled with his diminutive stature doomed his NBA career. He averaged 2.7 points on 33%FG in 142 NBA games.  Finally, Fredric Weis was taken 15th. He never played a minute in the NBA.